Abstract
PURPOSE: To predict the vault size after Implantable Collamer Lens (ICL) V4c implantation using machine learning methods and to compare the predicted vault with the conventional manufacturer's nomogram. METHODS: This study included 707 patients (707 eyes) who underwent ICL V4c implantation at the Department of Ophthalmology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, from September 2019 to January 2022. Random Forest Regression (RFR), XGBoost, and linear regression (LR) were used to predict the vault size 1 week after ICL V4c implantation. The mean absolute error (MAE), median absolute error (MedAE), root mean square error (RMSE), symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), and Bland-Altman plot were utilized to compare the prediction performance of these machine learning methods. RESULTS: The dataset was divided into a training set of 180 patients (180 eyes) and a test set of 527 patients (527 eyes). XGBoost had the lowest prediction error, with mean MAE, RMSE, and SMAPE values of 121.70 µm, 148.87 µm, and 19.13%, respectively. The Bland‒Altman plots of RFR and XGBoost showed better prediction consistency than LR. However, XGBoost showed narrower 95% limits of agreement (LoA) than RFR, ranging from -307.12 to 256.59 µm. CONCLUSIONS: XGBoost demonstrated better predictive performance than RFR and LR, as it had the lowest prediction error and the narrowest 95% LoA. Machine learning may be applicable for vault prediction, and it might be helpful for reducing the complications and the secondary surgery rate. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: Using the proposed machine learning model, surgeons can consider the postoperative vault to reduce the surgical complications.