Abstract
Erythroid parameters have been indicated to be important prognostic factors for liver diseases. The present study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the erythrocyte count in Chinese patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and develop a prognostic model. The clinical data of 301 patients with PBC were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify potential prognostic risk factors. Bivariate correlation analysis was used to determine the correlation coefficient of the erythrocyte count and biochemical indices. The prognostic values of different factors were compared by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. A novel prognostic model was constructed using multivariate logistic regression. Multivariate regression analysis suggested that the erythrocyte count was an independent risk factor/prognostic index (P=0.042). The erythrocyte count in peripheral blood decreased as the histological stage progressed (P<0.001). The erythrocyte count was correlated with albumin, liver stiffness and Fibrosis-4. Compared with that of platelets, the area under the ROC curve of the erythrocyte count was significantly greater. A similar area under the ROC curve was determined for the erythrocyte count, albumin and total bilirubin (P>0.05). A novel prognostic model was established as follows: P=1/{1 + e-[6.140-3.193 × Ln(erythrocyte count) -0.184 × albumin + 0.827 × Ln(total bilirubin)]}. The novel model had a comparable prognostic value to that of the GLOBE score and UK-PBC risk score, and had a better performance than the Mayo risk score at baseline (0.838 vs. 0.787). In conclusion, the erythrocyte count is an independent risk factor/prognostic index in Chinese patients with PBC. It was correlated with liver function and fibrosis in Chinese patients. The novel model incorporating the erythrocyte count and biochemical indices at baseline may serve as a prognostic tool in Chinese patients with PBC (Trial registration number, ChiCTR-ONRC-10002070; date of registration, 2010-05-10).