Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study aims to explore and project the temporal trends in incidence and mortality of testicular cancer. Moreover, it can provide theoretical guidance for the rational allocation of health resources. METHODS: This study analyzed existing data on testicular cancer morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and predicted time-varying trends of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) from 2017 to 2030 in different ages, regions and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile sub-groups. RESULT: Globally, numbers of testicular cancer cases in 2016 [66,833; 95% uncertainty interval (UI), 64,487-69,736] are 1.8 times larger than in 1990 (37,231; 95% UI, 36,116-38,515). The testicular cancer-related death cases increased slightly from 8,394 (95% UI, 7,980-8,904) in 1990 to 8,651 (95% UI, 8,292-9,027) in 2016. In aspect of ASIR, the data showed an up-trend from 0.74 (95% UI, 0.72-0.77) in 1990 to 0.88 (95% UI, 0.85-0.92) in 2016. The ASDR of testicular cancer declined from 0.18 (95% UI, 0.17-0.19) in 1990 to 0.12 (95% UI, 0.11-0.12) in 2016. From 2017 to 2030, predictions of trends in testicular cancer indicate that the ASIRs of most SDI countries are rising, but the ASDRs trends in testicular cancer will decrease. CONCLUSIONS: By analyzing the available and reliable data in different ages, regions and SDI, this study shows a significant upward trend in incidence and a slow upward trend in mortality of testicular cancer from 1990 to 2016, and simultaneously, predicts the increase of ASIR and the downward trend of ASDR in 2017-2030.