Abstract
Background. Identifying the risk factors peculiar to each population has a great relevance, because it enables health policy formulators to analyze information accurately and by doing so, define objectives and action programs aimed at a qualitative and economically feasible solution to the problem. Thus, this study aimed at identifying the risk factors for survival in elderly in a city in the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. Methods. A prospective study was carried out, where 310 elderly persons were selected to form a baseline. The follow-up was 53 months. The predictive variables were divided into sociodemographic, physical health, neuropsychiatric and functional capacity. Statistical analysis was performed using bivariate analysis, survival analysis, followed by Cox regression in the multivariate analysis. Results. A total of 60 (19.3%) elderly individuals died during the follow-up. The survival mean was 24.8 months. In the Cox analysis, dependence in basic activities of daily living (HR = 3.55), cognitive deficit (HR = 4.22) and stroke (HR = 3.35) continued as independent risk factors for death. Discussion. The risk factors found in the study can be interpreted as the primary predictors for death among elderly members of the community.