Abstract
This study used repeated measures analysis to identify potential Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score trajectory and determine whether MMSE trajectory was associated with incident dementia among community-dwelling older Japanese. 1,724 older residents in Kusatsu participated in annual geriatric health assessments during 2002–14. The total number of observations was 6,755 and the average number of follow-up was 3.9. A review of municipal database in the Japanese public long-term care insurance system revealed that 205 (11.9%) participants developed dementia until the end of 2014. As a result, we identified 3 distinct MMSE score trajectory patterns (high, middle, and low). Participants with middle (42.8%) and low (5.1%) MMSE trajectories showed multi-variate adjusted hazard ratios of 2.46 (95% CI, 1.64–3.68) and 10.73 (95% CI, 4.91–23.45), respectively, for incident dementia, as compared with those in the high (52.1%) trajectory group. Present data help us to construct the strategy for prevention of dementia in the community.