Abstract
Objective: The aim is to examine the prognostic validity of the Timed Up and Go Test with a cognitive and a manual dual task for predicting the risk of falls. Method: A follow-up study was performed. The data were recorded for 120 volunteers in an outpatient physiotherapy center, with a 12-month follow-up. The sample included 120 elderly men and women aged 60 to 87 years (M age = 72.2 years) living at home. The main measurements were as follows: The Timed Up and Go Test (TUG), the TUG with a cognitive dual task (TUGcog), and the TUG with a manual dual task (TUGman) and falls. Results: In the 12-month follow-up, 37 persons (30.8%) had a locomotive fall. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve shows significant results for the TUGcog. The area under the curve is 0.65 (p = .008), with a 95% confidence interval (CI) = [0.55, 0.76]. For the TUGman, the area under the curve is 0.57 with a 95% CI = [0.45, 0.68], which is not significant (p = .256). For the TUG, the area under the curve is 0.58, which is not significant (p = .256), 95% CI = [0.47, 0.69]. Conclusion: The TUGcog is a valid prognostic assessment to predict falls in community-dwelling elderly people.