Abstract
To investigate interindividual differences in cognitive terminal decline and identify determinants including functional, health, and genetic risk and protective factors, data from the Honolulu Heart Program/Honolulu-Asia Aging Study, a prospective cohort study of Japanese American men, were analyzed. The sample was recruited in 1965-1968 (ages 45-68 years). Longitudinal performance of cognitive abilities and mortality status were assessed from Exam 4 (1991-1993) through June 2014. Latent class analysis revealed 2 groups: maintainers retained relatively high levels of cognitive functioning until death and decliners demonstrated significant cognitive waning several years prior to death. Maintainers were more likely to have greater education, diagnosed coronary heart disease, and presence of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε2 allele and FOXO3 G allele (SNP rs2802292). Decliners were more likely to be older and have prior stroke, Parkinson's disease, dementia, and greater depressive symptoms at Exam 4, and the APOE ε4 allele. Findings support terminal decline using distance to death as the basis for modeling change. Significant differences were observed between maintainers and decliners 15 years prior to death, a finding much earlier compared to the majority of previous investigations.