Abstract
In the early stage of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), most cases are identified as mild or moderate illnesses. Approximately 20% of hospitalised patients become severe or critical at the middle or late stage of the disease. The predictors and risk factors for prognosis in those with mild or moderate disease remain to be determined. Of 694 patients with COVID-19, 231 patients with mild or moderate disease, who were hospitalised at 10 hospitals in Wenzhou and nearby counties in China, were enrolled in this retrospective study from 17 January to 20 March 2020. The outcomes of these patients included progression from mild/moderate illness to severe or critical conditions. Among the 231 patients, 49 (21.2%) had a poor prognosis in the hospital. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that higher inflammation/coagulopathy/immunology responsive index (ICIRI=[c-reactive protein × fibrinogen × D-dimer]/CD8 T cell count) on admission (OR=345.151, 95% CI=23.014-5176.318) was associated with increased odds ratios for poor prognosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for ICIRI predicting severe and critical condition progression was 0.65 (95% CI=0.519-0.782) and 0.80 (95% CI=0.647-0.954), with cut-off values of 870.83 and 535.44, respectively. Conversely, age, sex, comorbidity, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, CD8 T cell count, and c-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and D-dimer levels alone at admission were not good predictors of poor prognosis in patients with mild or moderate COVID-19. At admission, a novel index, ICIRI, tends to be the most promising predictor of COVID-19 progression from mild or moderate illness to severe or critical conditions.