Abstract
According to the current guidelines, watchful waiting (WW) is a feasible option for patients with good or intermediate prognosis renal-cell carcinoma (RCC). However, some patients rapidly progress during WW, requiring the initiation of treatment. Here, we explore whether we can identify those patients using circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA) methylation. We first defined a panel of RCC-specific circulating methylation markers by intersecting differentially methylated regions from a publicly available dataset with known RCC methylation markers from the literature. The resulting RCC-specific methylation marker panel of 22 markers was subsequently evaluated for an association with rapid progression by methylated DNA sequencing (MeD-seq) in serum from 10 HBDs and 34 RCC patients with a good or intermediate prognosis starting WW in the IMPACT-RCC study. Patients with an elevated RCC-specific methylation score compared to HBDs had a shorter progression-free survival (PFS, p = 0.018), but not a shorter WW-time (p = 0.15). Cox proportional hazards regression showed that only the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium (IMDC) criteria were significantly associated with WW time (HR 2.01, p = 0.01), whereas only our RCC-specific methylation score (HR 4.45, p = 0.02) was significantly associated with PFS. The results of this study suggest that cfDNA methylation is predictive of PFS but not WW.