Abstract
AIMS: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of using the cardiac specific marker high-sensitivity troponin-I (hsTnI) for assessing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: A discrete-event simulation model was developed from a societal perspective of a low-risk (Germany) and a high-risk (Kazakhstan) country. The model compared a Screen&Prevent strategy guided by hsTnI against a do-nothing strategy. Risk functions were derived from published data of a prospective cohort study [Nord-Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study]. The model assessed the number of CVD events and deaths, healthy life years, direct and indirect costs in PPP 2018 Dollar, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) over a time horizon of 10 years. Screen&Prevent reduced the number of CVD events per 1000 subjects by 5.1 and 5.0, equal to a number-needed-to-screen of 195 and 191 in Kazakhstan and Germany. Screen&Prevent was cost saving in Kazakhstan and cost-effective in Germany with an incremental-cost-effectiveness ratio of $6755 ($2294; $24 054) per QALY gained at an opportunity-cost based willingness-to-pay threshold of $27 373. Varying input variables in univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the analysis. CONCLUSION: Assessing the cardiovascular risk with hsTnI in a general population and subsequently referring those at high risk to preventive means would very likely be cost-effective or cost-saving by avoiding CVD events and associated direct and indirect costs. This conclusion is retained even if only the direct costs or only the costs for screening and prevention are considered. Future studies should evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness of hsTnI-guided assessment strategies against established risk algorithms.