A Bayesian approach to investment in innovation projects with the presence of fake innovators

贝叶斯方法在存在虚假创新者的情况下对创新项目进行投资

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Abstract

The paper proposes a game-theoretic model of interaction between investors and innovators, taking into account the existence of so-called "fake" innovators offering knowingly unprofitable projects. The model is a Bayesian non-cooperative, repetitive game with recalculated payments and partly unobservable ex interim player types. It allows quantifying the parameters of the strategy for all player types to find equilibrium solutions. The model describes rational modes for screening "fake" innovators based on adjusting players' probabilistic estimates.

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