Abstract
Mountains support a great diversity of species and habitat types. Grasslands are the dominant landscape in the Andes and play an important ecological role. However, they are threatened by many factors, including climate change and human activities. The spatial distribution of species that compose, and the ecological and evolutionary factors that provide for the spatial biodiversity patterns, are little known. The largest Poa L. (Poaceae) genera are widely diversified and distributed in the Andes. In particular, P. scaberula Hook. f. shows great environmentally mediated phenotypic plasticity, and is distributed from North America to the tip of South America. However, the impact of environmental variables has on the spatial distribution of this species, remain largely unknown. Using high-resolution climatic data, herein we modeled the current suitable habitat for P. scaberula and identified the main climatic variables that best predict its potential distribution. In addition, we assess the species status in the predicted habitats through herbarium data and relate it with species distribution models. The models showed that P. scaberula has a suitable habitat of ca. 162.747 km(2) along the Andes and high elevation regions. The most influential variables with a 68.5% contribution to the distribution of the species, particularly high elevation areas, included mean cold hardiness, water vapor pressure and temperature seasonality. The areas of greatest suitability with the highest occurrence of the species were identified geographically by the models. The present study provides useful information that can assist in the identification of areas where the species is most sensitive to different variables, including climate change and human activities and contributes in assessing the conservation status of Andean grassland at a regional scale.