Abstract
Marine pollution incidents pose significant threats to marine ecosystems and coastal communities across Pacific Island nations, necessitating advanced predictive capabilities for effective environmental management. This study analyzes 8133 marine pollution incidents from 2001-2014 across 25 Pacific Island nations to develop predictive models for pollution type classification, hotspot identification, and seasonal pattern forecasting. Our analysis reveals Papua New Guinea as the dominant pollution hotspot, experiencing 51.9% of all regional incidents, with plastic waste dumping comprising 78.8% of pollution events and exhibiting pronounced seasonal peaks during June (coinciding with critical fish breeding periods). Machine learning classification achieved 99.1% accuracy in predicting pollution types, with material composition emerging as the strongest predictor, followed by seasonal timing and geographic location. Temporal analysis identified distinct seasonal dependencies, with June representing peak pollution activity (755 average incidents), coinciding with vulnerable marine ecological periods. The predictive framework successfully distinguishes between persistent geographic hotspots and episodic pollution events, enabling targeted conservation interventions during high-risk periods. These findings demonstrate that pollution type and location are highly predictable from environmental and temporal variables, providing marine conservationists with tools to anticipate when and where pollution will most likely impact fish populations and ecosystem health. The study establishes the first comprehensive baseline for Pacific Island marine pollution patterns and validates machine learning approaches for proactive pollution monitoring, offering scalable solutions for protecting ocean ecosystems and supporting evidence-based policy formulation across the region.