Abstract
Climate change is reshaping global ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, with major impacts on biodiversity. Therefore, understanding how organisms can withstand change is key to identify priority conservation objectives. Marine ectotherms are being extremely impacted because their biology and phenology are directly related to temperature. Among these species, sea turtles are particularly problematic because they roam over both marine and terrestrial habitats throughout their life cycles. Focusing on green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Mediterranean Sea, we investigated the future potential changes of nesting grounds through time, assuming that marine turtles would shift their nesting locations. We modeled the current distribution of nesting grounds including both terrestrial and marine variables, and we projected the potential nesting distribution across the Mediterranean basin under alternative future greenhouse gas emission scenario (2000-2100). Our models show an increase in nesting probability in the western Mediterranean Sea, irrespective of the climate scenario we consider. Contrary to what is found in most global change studies, the worse the climate change scenario, the more suitable areas for green turtles will potentially increase. The most important predictors were anthropogenic variables, which negatively affect nesting probability, and sea surface temperature, positively linked to nesting probability, up to a maximum of 24-25 °C. The importance of the western Mediterranean beaches as potential nesting areas for sea turtles in the near future clearly call for a proactive conservation and management effort, focusing on monitoring actions (to document the potential range expansion) and threat detection.