Abstract
Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a mental disorder diagnosed by clinical interviews, self-report measures and neuropsychological testing. Traumatic brain injury (TBI) can have neuropsychiatric symptoms similar to PTSD. Diagnosing PTSD and TBI is challenging and more so for providers lacking specialized training facing time pressures in primary care and other general medical settings. Diagnosis relies heavily on patient self-report and patients frequently under-report or over-report their symptoms due to stigma or seeking compensation. We aimed to create objective diagnostic screening tests utilizing Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) blood tests available in most clinical settings. CLIA blood test results were ascertained in 475 male veterans with and without PTSD and TBI following warzone exposure in Iraq or Afghanistan. Using random forest (RF) methods, four classification models were derived to predict PTSD and TBI status. CLIA features were selected utilizing a stepwise forward variable selection RF procedure. The AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.730, 0.706, 0.659, and 0.715, respectively for differentiating PTSD and healthy controls (HC), 0.704, 0.677, 0.671, and 0.681 for TBI vs. HC, 0.739, 0.742, 0.635, and 0.766 for PTSD comorbid with TBI vs HC, and 0.726, 0.723, 0.636, and 0.747 for PTSD vs. TBI. Comorbid alcohol abuse, major depressive disorder, and BMI are not confounders in these RF models. Markers of glucose metabolism and inflammation are among the most significant CLIA features in our models. Routine CLIA blood tests have the potential for discriminating PTSD and TBI cases from healthy controls and from each other. These findings hold promise for the development of accessible and low-cost biomarker tests as screening measures for PTSD and TBI in primary care and specialty settings.