Abstract
BACKGROUND: Liver metastasis is the most common site of metastasis in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PaNETs), significantly affecting patient prognosis. This study aims to develop machine learning algorithms to predict liver metastasis in PaNETs patients, assisting clinicians in the personalized clinical decision-making for treatment. METHODS: We collected data on eligible PaNETs patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for the period from 2010 to 2021. The Boruta algorithm and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) were used for feature selection. We applied 10 different machine learning algorithms to develop models for predicting the risk of liver metastasis in PaNETs patients. The model's performance was assessed using a variety of metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), decision curve analysis (DCA), calibration curves, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1 score, and Kappa score. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were employed to interpret models, and the best-performing model was used to develop a web-based calculator. RESULTS: The study included a cohort of 7,463 PaNETs patients, of whom 1,356 (18.2%) were diagnosed with liver metastasis at the time of initial diagnosis. Through the combined use of the Boruta and LASSO methods, T-stage, N-stage, tumor size, grade, surgery, lymphadenectomy, chemotherapy, and bone metastasis were identified as independent risk factors for liver metastasis in PaNETs. Compared to other machine learning algorithms, the gradient boosting machine (GBM) model exhibited superior performance, achieving an AUC of 0.937 (95% CI: 0.931-0.943), an AUPRC of 0.94, and an accuracy of 0.87. DCA and calibration curve analyses demonstrate that the GBM model provides better clinical decision-making capabilities and predictive performance. Furthermore, the SHAP framework revealed that surgery, N-stage, and T-stage are the primary decision factors influencing the machine learning model's predictions. Finally, based on the GBM algorithm, we developed an accessible web-based calculator to predict the risk of liver metastasis in PaNETs. CONCLUSION: The GBM model excels in predicting the risk of liver metastasis in PaNETs patients, outperforming other machine learning models and providing critical support for developing personalized medical strategies in clinical practice.