Abstract
We have produced data and developed analysis to build representations for the concentration of spores of nonproteolytic Clostridium botulinum in materials that are used during the manufacture of minimally processed chilled foods in the United Kingdom. Food materials are categorized into homogenous groups which include meat, fish, shellfish, cereals, fresh plant material, dairy liquid, dairy nonliquid, mushroom and fungi, and dried herbs and spices. Models are constructed in a Bayesian framework and represent a combination of information from a literature survey of spore loads from positive-control experiments that establish a detection limit and from dedicated microbiological tests for real food materials. The detection of nonproteolytic C. botulinum employed an optimized protocol that combines selective enrichment culture with multiplex PCR, and the majority of tests on food materials were negative. Posterior beliefs about spore loads center on a concentration range of 1 to 10 spores kg(-1). Posterior beliefs for larger spore loads were most significant for dried herbs and spices and were most sensitive to the detailed results from control experiments. Probability distributions for spore loads are represented in a convenient form that can be used for numerical analysis and risk assessments.