Abstract
BACKGROUND: The risk of Herpes Zoster (HZ) increases with age and various studies have also demonstrated an increasing HZ incidence globally. Simultaneously, the global trend of an aging population has placed a greater burden on the healthcare system. This study aims to estimate the potential burden of HZ over time accounting for the increasing trends of both HZ incidence and global aging. METHODS: A recent systematic review on HZ incidence identified studies that evaluated the temporal effects of HZ incidence. Data from the identified studies were extracted to estimate the trend of HZ incidence in the ≥65-year-old age cohort. The incidence rates were estimated up to the year 2030 using two scenarios: a linear extrapolation and a last observation carried forward. Three countries were chosen to perform the analysis on: Australia, Japan and the United States. RESULTS: The incidence data from the three countries showed an average annual increase between 2.35 and 3.74% over the time period of the studies selected. The elderly population for the US, Japan and Australia are expected to increase by 55, 10 and 53% respectively by the year 2030 compared to the levels in 2015. Under the first scenario between 2001 and 2030, the number of annual incident cases of HZ in those aged ≥65 years is expected to increase by +343% (293,785 to 1,303,328), +176% (158,616 to 437,867) and +376% (18,105 to 86,268) in the US, Japan and Australia respectively while those for the second scenario are +150%, +83% and +223% respectively. In the US alone, the estimated annual cost of HZ-related cases in the ≥65 age cohort is approximately 4.74 Billion US$ in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The increasing incidence of HZ coupled with the demographic trends (i.e., aging population and greater life expectancy) in many countries are likely to imply a rising economic burden of HZ on already constrained healthcare budgets.