Abstract
Tacrolimus is pivotal in pancreas transplants but poses challenges in maintaining optimal levels due to recipient differences. This study aimed to explore the utility of time spent below the therapeutic range and intrapatient variability in predicting rejection and de novo donor-specific antibody (dnDSA) development in pancreas graft recipients. This retrospective unicentric study included adult pancreas transplant recipients between January 2006 and July 2020. Recorded variables included demographics, immunosuppression details, HLA matching, biopsy results, dnDSA development, and clinical parameters. Statistical analysis included ROC curves, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. A total of 131 patients were included. Those with biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR, 12.2%) had more time (39.9% ± 24% vs. 25.72% ± 21.57%, p = 0.016) and tests (41.95% ± 13.57% vs. 29.96% ± 17.33%, p = 0.009) below therapeutic range. Specific cutoffs of 31.5% for time and 34% for tests below the therapeutic range showed a high negative predictive value for BPAR (93.98% and 93.1%, respectively). Similarly, patients with more than 34% of tests below the therapeutic range were associated with dnDSA appearance (38.9% vs. 9.4%, p = 0.012; OR 6.135, 1.346-27.78). In pancreas transplantation, maintaining optimal tacrolimus levels is crucial. Suboptimal test percentages below the therapeutic range prove valuable in identifying acute graft rejection risk.