Abstract
BACKGROUND This retrospective study aimed to identify the predictive factors for the progression of grade A, or early biochemical leak, to grade B postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreaticoduodenectomy using preoperative computed tomography (CT) imaging of the pancreas. MATERIAL AND METHODS A total of 156 patients were analyzed retrospectively. Biochemical leakage occurred in 60 patients, who were divided into POPF progression and non-POPF progression groups. Perioperative parameters were collected. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were done. For the parameters with statistical significance, the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated if possible and the predictive value was assessed. RESULTS Univariate analysis showed that main pancreatic duct diameter, postoperative complications (except POPF), prothrombin time (PT) and serum albumin on postoperative day 3, and pancreatic CT value were risk factors of POPF (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that serum albumin and PT on postoperative day 3 and pancreatic CT value were independent risk factors of POPF (P<0.05). Lower postoperative albumin, lower pancreatic CT value, and longer PT were associated with a higher risk of POPF (P<0.05). The AUC of CT value was 0.808. CT value thresholds of 42.5 Hounsfield units (HU) and 41.5 HU were tied for the highest predictive performance, with Youden indices of 0.486 for both, and sensitivity of 79% and 71%, and specificity of 69% and 78%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Preoperative laboratory investigations and CT imaging of the pancreas may identify factors associated with early biochemical leakage progressing to grade B POPF following pancreaticoduodenectomy.