Abstract
BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity are well-known risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The effect of the maximum body mass index (BMImax), which indicates the highest body weight before the diagnosis of T2DM, is not fully understood. This study aimed to explore the predictive value of BMImax in the progression of diabetes. METHODS: This prospective study recruited 2018 subjects with normal glucose tolerance in Beijing, China. The subjects were followed up for eight years, and the association between BMImax and glucose outcomes was evaluated. RESULTS: Ninety-seven of the 2,018 participants developed diabetes by the end of the study. Compared to individuals with normal glucose tolerance, those who developed diabetes were characterized by higher levels of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h postload glucose (PBG), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA(1c)), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), a higher prevalence of a familial history of diabetes and a lower level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c). Multivariate regression analysis of sex-stratified groups suggested that FPG, HbA(1c), SBP and familial history of diabetes were independent risk factors for diabetes, but that BMImax was a unique indicator for female patients. CONCLUSIONS: BMImax might be an independent predictor of T2DM in females, but it does not seem to be associated with the risk of diabetes in males. BMImax could be regarded as an indicator in the prevention and management of diabetes.