Abstract
BACKGROUND: Individuals with Down syndrome are at a higher risk of cardiac, renal, and other health issues due to a complex disease physiology. However, few data exist on long-term disease risks to guide prevention and care. We aimed to determine the 10-year incidence of cardiac, renal, and urinary tract complications in Down syndrome versus matched controls. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study utilized a large collaborative database. We identified 32,444 patients with Down syndrome and matched controls, excluding those with pre-follow-up target events. Covariates included demographics, lifestyle factors, and comorbidities. Outcomes were ischemic heart disease, hypertension, hypothyroidism, epilepsy, urinary tract infections and chronic kidney disease. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using Cox regression and plotted Kaplan-Meier survival curves. FINDINGS: Over 10 years, Down syndrome patients showed a 3.7-fold higher ischemic heart disease risk (95% CI: 3.0-4.6) and a 1.6-fold higher hypertension risk (95% CI: 1.4-1.8) versus controls. Hypothyroidism (HR = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.7-2.4), epilepsy (HR = 4.5; 95% CI: 3.5-5.8), and urinary tract infection (HR = 3.9; 95% CI: 3.4-4.6) risks were also higher. Chronic kidney disease risk was 2.7-fold greater (95% CI: 2.1-3.5). Survival analysis confirmed a significantly higher incidence of all outcomes in Down syndrome (p < 0.0001). INTERPRETATION: This large study found major health challenges in Down syndrome, with risks 3- to 5-fold higher for chronic conditions versus matched controls over 10 years. Though survival remains high with proper care, focusing resources on the prevention and management of complications in this high-risk group can optimize well-being across the lifespan. Future research accounting for limitations here would provide definitive estimates of disease risk in Down syndrome to guide targeted health strategies.