Abstract
Sky islands provide insights on how glacial-interglacial cycles have shaped species distribution and help for predicting species' responses to climate warming. The alpine subnival belt of southwest China, especially in the Hengduan Mountains and adjacent areas, is sky island-like. Among them, the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau harbors several isolated mountains with well-developed alpine subnival vegetation, sharing a similar species composition with the Hengduan Mountains. However, the relationship between the sky islands of the Hengduan Mountains and the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau remains insufficiently explored. Pleurospermum foetens (Apiaceae) is a species endemic to the alpine screes of the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau and the Hengduan Mountains. We used DNA sequence data from 59 individuals across 9 populations, combined with ecological niche modeling, to investigate the evolution history and future distribution of P. foetens within this sky island region. The results indicate the following: (1) P. foetens exhibits a significant phylogeographic structure and can be classified into three nrDNA clades and two cpDNA clades, respectively, (2) a nuclear-plastid discordance observed in P. foetens and its relatives based on phylogenetic analysis. P. foetens is monophyletic in the nrDNA phylogeny, while two major clades (HDM and YGP) are present in the cpDNA phylogeny, each forming a clade with other congeneric species. (3) Ecological niche modeling of P. foetens indicated that the species had the most extensive suitable habitat during the last glacial maximum (LGM). However, anticipated climate warming in the coming decades is expected to reduce the suitable range of P. foetens, posing a significant threat to isolated marginal populations (e.g., Shizi Mountain) with restricted alpine scree habitats. In conclusion, our study highlights the substantial effect of sky island and glacial-interglacial cycles on the population divergence of P. foetens. Conservation efforts for marginal populations of alpine plants in the Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau require increased attention and prioritization.