Abstract
Albuminuria has been proposed as a surrogate end point in randomized clinical trials of renal disease progression. Most evidence comes from observational analyses showing that treatment-induced short-term changes in albuminuria correlate with risk change for ESRD. However, such studies are prone to selection bias and residual confounding. To minimize this bias, we performed a meta-analysis of clinical trials to correlate the placebo-corrected drug effect on albuminuria and ESRD to more reliably delineate the association between changes in albuminuria and ESRD. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for clinical trials reported between 1950 and April 2014. Included trials had a mean follow-up of ≥1000 patient-years, reported ESRD outcomes, and measured albuminuria at baseline and during follow-up. Twenty-one clinical trials involving 78,342 patients and 4183 ESRD events were included. Median time to first albuminuria measurement was 6 months. Fourteen trials tested the effect of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone-system inhibitors and seven trials tested other interventions. We observed variability across trials in the treatment effect on albuminuria (range, -1.3% to -32.1%) and ESRD (range, -55% to +35% risk change). Meta-regression analysis revealed that the placebo-adjusted treatment effect on albuminuria significantly correlated with the treatment effect on ESRD: for each 30% reduction in albuminuria, the risk of ESRD decreased by 23.7% (95% confidence interval, 11.4% to 34.2%; P=0.001). The association was consistent regardless of drug class (P=0.73) or other patient or trial characteristics. These findings suggest albuminuria may be a valid substitute for ESRD in many circumstances, even taking into account possible other drug-specific effects that may alter renal outcomes.