Abstract
Most solid cancers are characterized by chromosomal instability (CIN)-an elevated rate of large-scale chromosomal aberrations and ploidy changes. Chromosomal instability may arise through mutations in a range of genomic integrity loci and is commonly associated with fast disease progression, poor prognosis, and multidrug resistance. However, the evolutionary forces promoting CIN-inducing alleles (hereafter, CIN mutators) during carcinogenesis remain poorly understood. Here, we develop a stochastic, individual-based model of indirect selection experienced by CIN mutators via genomic associations with fitness-affecting mutations. Because mutations associated with CIN affect large swaths of the genome and have the potential to simultaneously comprise many individual loci, we show that indirect selection on CIN mutators is critically influenced by genome organization. In particular, we find strong support for a key role played by the spatial clustering of loci with either beneficial or deleterious mutational effects. Genomic clustering of selected loci allows CIN mutators to generate favorable chromosomal changes that facilitate their rapid expansion within a neoplasm and, in turn, accelerate carcinogenesis. We then examine the distribution of oncogenic and tumor-suppressing loci in the human genome and find both to be potentially more clustered along the chromosome than expected, leading us to speculate that human genome may be susceptible to CIN hitchhiking. More quantitative data on fitness effects of individual mutations will be necessary, though, to assess the true levels of clustering in the human genome and the effectiveness of indirect selection for CIN. Finally, we use our model to examine how therapeutic strategies that increase the deleterious burden of genetically unstable cells by raising either the rate of CIN or the cost of deleterious mutations affect CIN evolution. We find that both can inhibit CIN hitchhiking and delay carcinogenesis in some circumstances, yet, in line with earlier work, we find the latter to be considerably more effective.