Dynamics and optimal control for tuberculosis transmission via a data-validated periodic model

基于数据验证的周期模型的结核病传播动力学和最优控制

阅读:2

Abstract

China is the third-largest contributor to the global incidence of tuberculosis (TB), and there are significant differences in the prevalence of TB among different age groups. Therefore, it is necessary to study the contribution of adolescents to the transmission of tuberculosis. Given that tuberculosis in mainland China exhibits periodic transmission characteristics, a non-autonomous differential equation model that considers age stage and periodic transmission has been proposed. We derived the basic reproduction number R (0) of this model and proved the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium when R (0) < 1, as well as the persistence of the disease when R (0) > 1. We estimated the basic reproduction number R (0) = 1.18, which indicates that tuberculosis in mainland China is of low endemicity. Sensitivity analysis tells us that the adolescent group has a significant impact on the transmission of tuberculosis and is an indispensable force. Furthermore, we constructed a tuberculosis transmission control model and proposed four optimal control strategies, calculated the strategy-related benefits (ACER) and the incremental benefits between strategies (ICER), and further provided targeted recommendations for controlling tuberculosis transmission among different groups.

特别声明

1、本页面内容包含部分的内容是基于公开信息的合理引用;引用内容仅为补充信息,不代表本站立场。

2、若认为本页面引用内容涉及侵权,请及时与本站联系,我们将第一时间处理。

3、其他媒体/个人如需使用本页面原创内容,需注明“来源:[生知库]”并获得授权;使用引用内容的,需自行联系原作者获得许可。

4、投稿及合作请联系:info@biocloudy.com。