Abstract
Timing of first reproduction is a key life-history variable with important implications for global economic development and health. Life-history theory predicts that human reproductive strategies are shaped by mortality regimes. This study provides the first test of the relationship between population-level adolescent fertility (AF) and extrinsic risk at two time points. Data are from United Nations database and were analysed using mediation and moderation techniques. The goals were to determine whether (i) early risk has a stronger impact on fertility than current risk; (ii) current risk mediates the relationship between early risk and fertility outcomes; and (iii) different levels of early risk influence the relationship between current risk and fertility. Results indicated that current risk partially mediated the relationship between early risk and fertility, with early risk having the strongest impact on reproduction. Measures for early and current mortality did not show significant interaction effects. However, a series of separate regression analyses using a quantile split of early risk indicated that high levels of early risk strengthened the relationship between current risk and AF. Overall, these findings demonstrate that reproductive strategies are significantly influenced by fluctuations of early mortality as well as current environmental cues of harshness.