Abstract
Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic interstitial lung disease with a poor prognosis. Its non-specific clinical symptoms make accurate prediction of disease progression challenging. This study aimed to develop molecular-level prognostic models to personalize treatment strategies for IPF patients. Using transcriptome sequencing and clinical data from 176 IPF patients, we developed a Random Survival Forest (RSF) model through machine learning and bioinformatics techniques. The model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy and clinical utility, as shown by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brief scores, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. Additionally, a novel prognostic staging system was introduced to stratify IPF patients into distinct risk groups, enabling individualized predictions. The model's performance was validated using a bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis mouse model. In conclusion, this study offers a new prognostic staging system and predictive tool for IPF, providing valuable insights for treatment and management.