Abstract
BACKGROUND: While past experiences show that a health system financing mechanism can support resilience to shocks, the impact on the sustainability of the financing system is exceptionally important considering the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic. The role of Social Health Insurance (SHI) in responding to the pandemic brings about an influence on insurance system sustainability. This study investigates the impact of China's COVID-19 treatment policy on the sustainability of its SHI system, explores influences of the policy on Wuhan's system, and discusses the effects of an assumed equivalent emergency on SHI funds for five other provincial capital cities in China. METHODS: The study was conducted using pay-as-you-go actuarial models of Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) and Urban and Rural Residents Basic Medical Insurance (URRBMI) funds, which constitute China's basic health insurance system. Current and accumulated balances of the funds in 2020 are predicted and utilized to measure the sustainability of health insurance funds during emergencies. RESULTS: The findings suggest a disparity in the capacities of insurance schemes and localities. If the surplus before 2018 is not considered, it is likely that the URRBMI fund of Wuhan would suffer a deficit, whereas the UEBMI would retain a considerable surplus. To maintain the current actuarial balance of the URRBMI fund, coverage for ordinary inpatient and outpatient expenses would have to be significantly reduced in Wuhan, potentially affecting enrollees' wellbeing. A similar situation may occur in three other cities, some with underdeveloped economies and lower per capita income are likely to be encountered with worse situation than Wuhan. CONCLUSION: Concerning fragmentation of China's SHI system, to strengthen longer-term preparedness to manage future emergencies, this study suggests the integration of insurance schemes and provincial pooling, fund balance adjusting and an emergency safety net are also advised. All options call for more public health investments.