Abstract
Wildlife tourism plays a crucial role in biodiversity conservation. However, long-term sustainability is difficult to achieve. In this paper, we use property theory to produce a mathematical model that aims to better support stakeholders from the wildlife tourism industry to better guarantee a balance between sightings probability, tourists' overall experience and operators' sharing behaviour. We illustrate our model with the case study of Porto Jofre in the Pantanal wetland, Brazil. We show that while dealing with low sighting probability, tourist operators must share information about species' locations, leading to a system of open access regarding mobility and information. However, when sightings become common, sharing must be restricted to a bounded group avoiding overcrowding, a system of limited open access. Finally, when the sighting probability is high, no sharing is needed to achieve maximum overall experience. Our case study in Porto Jofre, Pantanal, Brazil, clearly shows these shifts in terms of governance strategies. We show that by looking at sighting probability it is possible to predict the best optimal social strategy that will guarantee long-term sustainability of the wildlife tourism initiatives. We also show the need for external support on adaptation in cases where current strategies do not match the predicted ones.