Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To determine whether molecular remission defined by a multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) score predicts a reduced risk of joint damage progression, and whether the MBDA score can augment existing classifications of remission. METHODS: The study examined 271 visits for 163 RA patients in the Leiden Early Arthritis Cohort. The MBDA score and other variables from each visit were evaluated for prediction of progression [change in Sharp-van der Heijde Score (ΔSHS) >3] over the ensuing 12 months. Positive likelihood ratios (PLRs) for non-progression were calculated for remission based upon DAS based on 28-joint counts and CRP (DAS28-CRP <2.32), EULAR/ACR Boolean criteria and MBDA score (≤25). RESULTS: Ninety-three per cent of patients in MBDA-defined remission did not experience progression, compared with 70% of patients not in MBDA remission (P = 0.001). There were no significant differences in the fraction of non-progressers between patients in remission and those not in remission using either DAS28-CRP or EULAR/ACR criteria. The PLR for non-progression over 12 months for MBDA remission was 4.73 (95% CI 1.67, 15.0). Among patients in DAS28-CRP remission, those with a high MBDA score were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI 1.1, 3.7) to have joint damage progression during the next year. CONCLUSION: MBDA-defined remission was an indicator of limited radiographic progression over the following 12 months. For patients in DAS28-CRP remission, high MBDA scores were a significant indicator of elevated risk of progression. MBDA results may provide a useful adjunct to clinical assessment to identify progression-free remission and assess subclinical disease.