Abstract
Estimates of temporal variation in demographic rates are critical for identifying drivers of population change and supporting conservation. However, for inconspicuous wide-ranging species, births may be missed and fecundity rates underestimated. We address this issue using photo-identification data and a novel robust design multistate model to investigate changes in bottlenose dolphin fecundity and calf survival. The model allows for uncertainty in breeding status, and seasonal effects. The best model estimated an increase in the proportion of females with newborn calves from 0.16 (95% CI = 0.11-0.24) in 2001 to 0.28 (95% CI = 0.22-0.36) in 2016. First year calf survival also increased over this period from 0.78 (95% CI = 0.53-0.92) to 0.93 (95% CI = 0.82-0.98). Second year calf survival remained lower, but also showed an increase from 0.32 (95% CI = 0.19-0.48) to 0.55 (95% CI = 0.44-0.65). Females with newborn calves had a slightly higher mortality than those with older calves, but further work is required to evaluate potential costs of reproduction. This study presents a rare example of empirical evidence of a positive trend in reproduction and survival for a cetacean population using a Marine Protected Area.