Abstract
Plastic and selective mechanisms govern parental investment adjustments to predation threat. We investigated the relative importance of plasticity and selection in risk-taking propensity of incubating female common eiders Somateria mollissima facing unprecedented predation in SW Finland, Baltic Sea. Using a 12-year individual-based dataset, we examined within- and among-individual variation in flight initiation distance (FID), in relation to predation risk, nest detectability, individual traits and reproductive investment (N(FID) = 1009; N(individual) = 559). We expected females nesting in riskier environments (higher predation risk, lower nest concealment) to mitigate environmentally imposed risk by exhibiting longer FIDs, and females investing more in current reproduction (older, in better condition or laying larger clutches) to display shorter FIDs. The target of predation-adult or offspring-affected the mechanisms adapting risk-taking propensity; females plastically increased their FID under higher adult predation risk, while risk-avoiding breeders were predominant on islands with higher nest predation risk. Risk-taking females selected thicker nest cover, consistent with personality-matching habitat choice. Females plastically attenuated their anti-predator response (shorter FIDs) with advancing age, and females in better body condition were more risk-taking, a result explained by selection processes. Future research should consider predator type when investigating the fitness consequences of risk-taking strategies.