Abstract
Little work has been done on the prediction of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma in female patients who have given birth to children, which may be different from other people. We performed a retrospective review of female patients who underwent thyroidectomy, aiming at identifying special predictors of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma in female patients who have given birth to children. Univariate analysis was used to identify potential covariates for the prediction of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors and construct a regression model based on a training cohort (246 patients) and then the regression model was validated using an independent cohort (80 patients). We found that having not more than one boy, taller-than-wide shape, poorly defined margin, marked hypoechogenicity, and microcalcification were independent risk factors for the papillary thyroid microcarcinoma in multivariate analyses. The combined predictive formula had a high predictive effect for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (AUC = 0.938 for training cohort and 0.929 for validation cohort, respectively). The combined predictive formula has clinical value in the prognosis of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma and it may be simple and effective to ask fertility condition of patients to increase the US diagnosis accuracy of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.