Abstract
Leishmaniases are a group of vector-borne diseases with different clinical manifestations caused by parasites transmitted by sand fly vectors. In Mexico, the sand fly Lutzomyia olmeca olmeca is the only vector proven to transmit the parasite Leishmania mexicana to humans, which causes leishmaniasis. Other vector species with potential medical importance have been obtained, but their geographic distributions and relation to transmission areas have never been assessed. We modeled the ecological niches of nine sand fly species and projected niches to estimate potential distributions by using known occurrences, environmental coverages, and the algorithms GARP and Maxent. All vector species were distributed in areas with known recurrent transmission, except for Lu. diabolica, which appeared to be related only to areas of occasional transmission in northern Mexico. The distribution of Lu. o. olmeca does not overlap with all reported cutaneous leishmaniasis cases, suggesting that Lu. cruciata and Lu. shannoni are likely also involved as primary vectors in those areas. Our study provides useful information of potential risk areas of leishmaniasis transmission in Mexico.