Abstract
Human activities and climate change are influencing the survival and distribution of species, threatening the current distribution pattern of biodiversity and potentially leading to the "sixth mass extinction." The forest musk deer (Moschus berezovskii) is among the most numerous and widely distributed musk deer species in China. However, its habitat is severely threatened by human activities and climate change. Due to the lack of field surveys and research data, it is difficult to assess the threats posed by human activities and climate change effectively. In this study, we integrate the new records of forest musk deer with climate and human activity data, and apply the MaxEnt species distribution model to evaluate the impact of human activities and climate change on the forest musk deer under current conditions and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). Our results showed that the forest musk deer prefer areas with high vegetation cover (NDVI > 0.7), low GDP, and low levels of human activity disturbance. The areas of high-suitability habitats are 90.10 × 10(4) km(2), 72.85 × 10(4) km(2), and 30.43 × 10(4) km(2), respectively. The optimal climatic conditions are an annual precipitation (BIO12) of 750-1500 mm and a seasonal temperature variation (BIO4) of 500-600. Their occurrence probability is highest at elevations between 1500 and 3000 m. Under the current climate conditions, the area of high-suitability habitats is estimated at 5.54 × 10(4) km(2), primarily distributed across central-northern Sichuan, northwestern Guangxi, and southern Gansu. Under the future climate scenarios, low and medium-suitability habitats are projected to shrink to varying degrees, whereas the high-suitability area is expected to expand, particularly under the SSP5-8.5-2030s scenario where it is projected to increase by 2.88 × 10(4) km(2). The centroid of suitable habitat is projected to shift toward higher-elevation areas in northwestern China, with regional hotspots emerging in southwestern regions such as central-northern Sichuan and northwestern Guangxi. These elevational and distributional shifts highlight the vulnerability of current habitats and the importance of adaptive conservation strategies to strengthen species protection, including continuously advancing forest protection programs, mitigating the impact of human activities in high-altitude areas, and strengthening the protection of key areas in the southwestern region.