Abstract
Climate change is reshaping plant distribution and ecological adaptation worldwide. Ficus tikoua Bur., a perennial resource plant native to Southwest and South China, has not been systematically assessed for its future cultivation potential. In this study, we used the Biomod2 ensemble modeling framework, integrating 12 algorithms with 469 occurrence records and 16 environmental variables, to predict the potential distribution and niche dynamics of F. tikoua under current and future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The ensemble model achieved high predictive accuracy based on multiple algorithms and cross-validation. The minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6, 43.5%), maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5, 25.0%), and annual precipitation (bio12, 10.3%) were identified as the dominant factors shaping its distribution. Model projections suggest that suitable habitats will generally expand northwestward, while contracting in the southeast. Core areas, such as the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Sichuan Basin, are predicted to remain highly stable. In contrast, southeastern marginal regions are likely to experience a decline in suitability due to intensified heat stress. Niche analyses further revealed strong niche conservatism (overlap D = 0.83-0.94), suggesting that the species maintains stable climatic tolerance and adapts primarily through range shifts rather than evolutionary change. This finding suggests limited adaptive flexibility in response to rapid warming. Overall, climate warming may enhance cultivation opportunities for F. tikoua at higher latitudes and elevations, while emphasizing the importance of protecting stable core habitats, planning climate adaptation corridors, and integrating this species into climate-resilient agroforestry strategies. These findings provide practical guidance for biodiversity conservation and land-use planning, offering a scientific basis for regional policy formulation under future climate change.