Abstract
Under the background of global climate change, lichens as a staple fallback food source for the endangered Yunnan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus bieti) exert a critical influence on the survival of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey populations through their distribution dynamics. This study focused on the contiguous habitats of the Yunnan snub-nosed monkey in the southern Hengduan Mountains. By species distribution models (SDMs) and landscape pattern analysis, we investigated the changes in suitable habitats of lichens under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and their implications for the habitat utilization of the Yunnan snub-nosed monkey until 2050. The results indicate that the current suitable habitat for lichen spans approximately 16,821.96 km(2), with highly suitable habitats predominantly located in Deqin County and Weixi County. Altitude and vegetation type emerged as primary factors influencing lichen distribution. The overlap rate of suitable habitats between lichens and the Yunnan snub-nosed monkey is 72.24%. Furthermore, the Yunnan snub-nosed monkey exhibits a preference for selecting habitats characterized by the largest patch index (LPI) of lichen distribution. By 2050, the suitable habitat for lichen is projected to marginally increase in the southern Hengduan Mountains, particularly under the RCP 6.0 scenario, by 22.20% compared to the current expansion. However, both the suitable habitat and the LPI of lichen face potential decline within the habitat of the Yunnan snub-nosed monkey. Therefore, we recommend conducting a quantitative investigation into the correlation between the actual productivity of lichen radiata and the population dynamics of Yunnan snub-nosed monkey as a priority. This research will offer a more precise scientific foundation for conservation decision-making for Yunnan snub-nosed monkey.