Abstract
Climate change continues to threaten global biodiversity, making it essential to assess how keystone species may shift their distributions and to use these findings to inform conservation planning. This study evaluated the current and future habitat suitability of D. macropodum, an important tree species within subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in China, using 354 occurrence records and a suite of environmental variables. A parameter-optimized MaxEnt model (calibrated with ENMeval; RM = 4, FC = QHPT) was applied to simulate the species' present distribution and projected changes under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). The main factors influencing distribution were determined to be moisture and temperature seasonality, with the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19, 36.3%), the mean diurnal range (Bio2, 37.5%), and the precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18, 14.2%) jointly contributing 88.0% of the total influence. The model projections indicated a 40.1% reduction in the total number of suitable habitats under high-emission scenarios (SSP585) by the 2090s, including a loss of over 80% of highly suitable areas. Centroid movements also diverged across the scenarios: a southwestern shift under SSP126 and SSP245 contrasted with a southeastern shift under SSP585, with each accompanied by significant habitat fragmentation. Key climate refugia were identified primarily in central Taiwan Province and the mountainous zones of Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces, which should be prioritized for conservation activities. These insights offer a foundational understanding for the conservation of D. macropodum and other ecologically similar subtropical evergreen species. However, direct extrapolation to other taxa should be made cautiously, as specific responses may vary based on differing ecological tolerances and dispersal capacities. Further research is needed to test the generalizability of these patterns across diverse plant functional types.