Abstract
Given the increasing role of river-borne anthropogenically-derived substances on the water quality of impacted marine ecosystems, it is important to study the pathways of the river waters in the Black Sea. We perform tracer simulations for the river-borne substance, aiming to track its transport and accumulation in the basin and to identify possible long term trends. Our results suggest a decrease in Danube plume transport southward along the coastline and increasing transport to the north and north-eastern parts of the North Western Shelf (NWS) and then to the southwest. Over the 1960-2017 period, the Black Sea circulation showed an amplification and consolidation of the Rim Current, most likely in response to climatic changes. Recent changes in the circulation patterns seem to be a key factor for the modification of the river plume pathways. The concentration of the river-borne substance reaches an annual maximum in September, when pulses with larger tracer concentrations can be found in the inner basin. The accumulation of river-borne substance on the north and south shelf has increased in recent decades.