Abstract
The urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MYR-UA) are facing a severe challenge in reducing carbon emissions while maintaining stable economic growth and prioritizing ecological protection. The energy consumption related to land urbanization makes an important contribution to the increase in carbon emissions. In this study, an IPAT/Kaya identity model is used to understand how land urbanization affected carbon emissions in Wuhan, Changsha, and Nanchang, the three major cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, from 2000 to 2017. Following the core idea of the Kaya identity model, sources of carbon emissions are decomposed into eight factors: urban expansion, economic level, industrialization, population structure, land use, population density, energy intensity, and carbon emission intensity. Furthermore, using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), we analyze how the different time periods and time series driving forces, especially land urbanization, affect regional carbon emissions. The results indicate that the total area of construction land and the total carbon emissions increased from 2000 to 2017, whereas the growth in carbon emissions decreased later in the period. Energy intensity is the biggest factor in restraining carbon emissions, followed by population density. Urban expansion is more significant than economic growth in promoting carbon emissions, especially in Nanchang. In contrast, the carbon emission intensity has little influence on carbon emissions. Changes in population structure, industrial level, and land use vary regionally and temporally over the different time period.