Abstract
Agricultural irrigation and resettlement have significant impacts on carbon storage in arid inland river basins. With the background of "Comprehensive development measures for agricultural irrigation and resettlement in Shule River Basin (SRB)", this paper uses land use data to estimate regional carbon storage through InVEST model and revises the result by using net ecosystem productivity (NEP). The influence of land use change on carbon storage and the driving factors of carbon storage spatial differentiation were analyzed by using the optimal parameters geographical detector (OPGD). It can be inferred from the results that: (1) During 2000-2020, the increase of cropland and grassland area is the main type of land use change in the central oasis area of Yumen City and Guazhou County. Cumulative carbon storage increased by 1.75 × 10(7) t. (2) NEP in the central oasis area of Yumen City and Guazhou County showed a fluctuating upward trend, and it generally behaves as a carbon sink. The average annual NEP was 1.78 × 10(5) t, and the carbon sink increased by 0.95 × 10(5) t. (3) The main factors responsible for driving are vegetation, elevation, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation. The explanatory power of each factor in carbon storage spatial differentiation was enhanced by the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors. The interaction between vegetation and the human factor is more significant than that of the human single factor. (4) Agricultural irrigation and resettlement measures did not cause a decline in ecosystem carbon storage in Yumen City and Guazhou County in the central part of SRB. Conversely, the region's ecosystems have seen an increase in carbon storage as a result of the increase in cropland. (5) The introduction of the NEP modification method and the OPGD model improves the accuracy of carbon storage estimation and obtains better driving results in spatial differentiation. The study idea provides a new perspective for the estimation of carbon storage as a whole, and provides a reference basis for the formulation of ecological protection policies.