Abstract
Rapid urbanization in China profoundly impacts terrestrial carbon stocks, necessitating robust assessment and prediction frameworks. This study employed a coupled InVEST-PLUS model to analyse carbon stock dynamics and the economic value of carbon sinks in Jiangsu Province, a rapidly urbanizing region. We evaluated historical changes (2000-2020) and projected future impacts (2020-2040) under various land-use planning scenarios and climate emission pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). Our findings reveal a significant historical carbon stock decrease of 14.34 Tg in Jiangsu Province between 2000 and 2020, with 86.11% of this reduction occurring from 2000 to 2010. The conversion of cropland to built-up land emerged as a critical driver of carbon loss and diminished carbon sink economic value. Projections indicate that Cropland Protection (CP) and Ecological Protection (EP) scenarios are crucial for mitigating these declines. Integrating climate change, we found carbon sink losses escalated stepwise with increasing emission intensity, with soil carbon losses consistently exceeding those from vegetation. Policy effectiveness varied, with the EP scenario performing optimally under low emission conditions. This study underscores the urgent need for strategic land-use planning to safeguard carbon stocks and economic stability, thereby contributing to carbon neutrality goals.