Abstract
Low-carbon development of China's power sector is the key to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the logarithmic mean divisor index (LMDI) model, considering the carbon transfer caused by inter-provincial electricity trading, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of CO(2) emissions in the provincial power sector and uses K-means clustering method to divide 30 provinces into four categories to analyze the differences in regional carbon emission characteristics. In addition, by establishing different development scenarios, the carbon emission trends and emission reduction potentials of each cluster under different emission reduction measures from 2020 to 2040 are studied, in order to explore the differentiated emission reduction paths of each cluster. The results show that the contribution of influencing factors shows great differences in different provinces. Trends in CO(2) emissions vary widely across scenarios. In the reference scenario, the CO(2) emissions of each cluster will continue to increase; in the existing policy scenario, the total power industry will peak at 6.1Gt in 2030; in the advance peak scenario that puts more emphasis on the development of advanced technologies and renewable energy under the clean development model, the carbon emission peak will be brought forward to 2025, and the peak will be reduced to 5.2Gt. Finally, differentiated emission reduction paths and measures are proposed for the future low-carbon development of different cluster power industries, providing theoretical reference for the deployment of provincial-level emission reduction work, which is of great significance to the global green and low-carbon transformation. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10098-022-02456-1.