Abstract
In the context of the vision to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, Mainland China's agricultural development will face strict carbon constraints. This paper analyzes the agricultural land-use efficiency of Mainland China's agriculture under carbon emission constraint from 1996 to 2020, based on the unexpected super SBM (Slack-based measure)-Undesirable DEA, Malmquist index model, and quartile division-GIS method. The results show that: from 1996 to 2020, the agricultural output value per land and grain output per land show an upward trend, and the agricultural carbon emissions per land of most provinces show an increasing trend and larger emissions. The agricultural land-use efficiency in Mainland China rises first and then decreases, and technological progress is the decisive path to improving the agricultural land-use efficiency in Mainland China. The average MI in the prominent grain-selling area during 1996-2020 was as high as 1.071, which was significantly higher than that in the prominent grain-producing area (1.039) and the balance area (1.030). The improvement of agricultural land-use efficiency is mostly due to technological progress, but the instability of technical input and management in land use. To improve agricultural land-use efficiency in Mainland China, we should pay attention to the precise policy formulation of low-carbon and high-quality development and strengthen government investment in the difference between space resource endowment and development status.