Abstract
Recently, more and more seaports have actively adjusted the energy structure of yard cranes to achieve green and low-carbon transition. Hydrogen energy, with its advantages of high efficiency and environmental friendliness, has become a crucial energy source for the low-carbon transition. Based on real options theory, this paper developed a cost-benefit model and proposed investment options for hydrogen-powered yard crane construction projects. The model incorporates uncertainty factors such as hydrogen price, carbon price and technology maturity, creating a multi-factor options model that provides scientific and reasonable investment decision support. Case study is conducted using the Qingdao Port. The results indicated that the optimal investment decision option for transition project is to invest in the construction of 12 new hydrogen-powered yard cranes between 2021 and 2025, with no further investment thereafter. In this invest plan, a total number of 18 hydrogen-powered yard cranes is built at the terminal, the project investment value is CNY 5.3566 million and the carbon emissions are reduced by 22,140 tons. Since hydrogen-powered yard crane construction is still in its early stages, after a small-scale upgrade to hydrogen power, the seaport can choose to observe the market and gradually advance the construction, thereby reducing investment risk. The changes of hydrogen and carbon prices have not impacted the project value. However, an increase of merely 0.1 in the technology readiness level parameter has led to a significant rise in the option value of option four from 5.3566 million to 8.2687 million, marking an increase of 54%. Sensitivity analysis revealed that cost changes due to technology maturity have the greatest impact on investment value. Strengthening research and development and upgrading hydrogen-powered yard crane equipment is an effective way to accelerate transition towards low carbon seaport. This research provides a groundbreaking framework for port authorities to evaluate hydrogen-powered equipment investments under multiple uncertainties, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical decision-making. The findings offer actionable insights for global ports pursuing low-carbon transitions while managing financial risks.