Abstract
This paper examines the emission mitigation potential of Chinese households' low-carbon behavior by 2030 through a global carbon footprint scenario analysis. The emission reduction effect is estimated by comparing the projected global emissions in 2030 in a lifestyle emulation scenario and a low-carbon scenario, in which Chinese households adopt low-carbon consumption behaviors. Lifestyle emulation is modeled based on what we call "world Engel curves", which describe how the expenditure share of a certain consumption good depends on the total per capita expenditures for household consumption (which depends on income). By including a dynamic link between household lifestyle changes and GDP, we then obtain the emission projections under different scenarios in 2030, based on the historical data for 49 countries from 1995 to 2011 from EXIOBASE. Our results show that adopting a mild low-carbon lifestyle by households helps only little in terms of reducing GHG emissions. Reducing avoidable waste and expanding the lifetime of products are not enough to help meeting the 2 °C goal. More drastic changes are required.