Abstract
Beijing has experienced rapid economic development since the reforms and opening up. However, the traditional development model based on excessive energy consumption has posed great challenges to the ecological environment. To curb environmental degradation and achieve sustainable social development, Beijing has proposed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. As an important indicator of energy consumption, it is necessary to clarify how energy intensity (EI) affects carbon emissions (CE) to achieve carbon neutrality in Beijing by 2050. This study first decomposes the drivers of CE in Beijing from 2010 to 2020 using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and comparatively analyses the impact of EI on CE. Then, the spatial Dubin model (SDM) is used to analyse the spatial spillover effect of EI on CE at the regional level. Finally, the macro moderating role of economic development in the effect of EI on CE is analysed. The results show that the effect of EI has been the main driver of CE reduction in Beijing. Among the industrial sectors, manufacturing and transportation have had the greatest success in reducing CE through EI reduction. At the regional level, there is a spatial spillover effect of EI on CE, and the effect of carbon reduction through the spillover effect of EI is greater than the direct effect of EI. Economic factors have an enhanced moderating effect on the process of EI affecting CE, and this moderating effect has threshold properties.