Abstract
BACKGROUND: Climate change is impacting the distribution and movement of mobile marine organisms globally. Statistical species distribution models are commonly used to explain past patterns and anticipate future shifts. However, purely correlative models can fail under novel environmental conditions, or omit key mechanistic processes driving species habitat use. METHODS: Here, we used a unique combination of laboratory measurements, field observations, and environmental predictors to investigate spatial variability in energetic seascapes for juvenile North Pacific albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga). This species undertakes some of the longest migrations of any finfish, but their susceptibility to climate-driven habitat changes is poorly understood. We first built a framework based on Generalized Additive Models to understand mechanisms of energy gain and loss in albacore, and how these are linked to ocean conditions. We then applied the framework to projections from an ensemble of earth system models to quantify changes in thermal and foraging habitats between historical (1971-2000) and future (2071-2100) time periods. RESULTS: We show how albacore move seasonally between feeding grounds in the California Current System and the offshore North Pacific, foraging most successfully in spring and summer. The thermal corridors used for migration largely coincide with minimum metabolic costs of movement. Future warming may result in loss of favorable thermal habitat in the sub-tropics and a reduction in total habitat area, but allow increased access to productive and energetically favorable sub-arctic ecosystems. Importantly, while thermal considerations suggest a loss in habitat area, forage considerations suggest that these losses may be offset by more energetically favorable conditions in the habitat that remains. In addition, the energetic favorability of coastal foraging areas may increase in future, with decreasing suitability of offshore foraging grounds. Our results clearly show the importance of moving beyond temperature when considering climate change impacts on marine species and their movement ecology. CONCLUSIONS: Considering energetic seascapes adds essential mechanistic underpinning to projections of habitat gain and loss, particularly for highly migratory animals. Overall, improved understanding of mechanisms driving migration behavior, physiological constraints, and behavioral plasticity is required to better anticipate how climate change will impact pelagic marine ecosystems.