Abstract
The ability of mangroves in taking up and storing heavy metal (HM) helps in reducing HM pollution. However, HMs likewise adversely affect the growth of mangroves. We assess the effects of the long-term soil HMs enrichment on the growth of Rhizophora apiculata forest in the Can Gio Mangrove Forest (Southern Vietnam) in different environmental conditions of soil salinity, ground elevation, and tree density based on a novel set of measured data. These data were analyzed and were used to calibrate and validate for a tree growth model with influencing factors salinity, elevation, tree density, and heavy metals content. Three scenario simulations were performed to predict the mangrove dynamics under different levels of heavy metal pollution in combined environmental conditions of salinity and elevation. Simulation results show the decline of total forest biomass from 1,750,000 tons (baseline scenario with no HM pollution) down to 850,000 tons and 350,000 tons for the current HM pollution and double HM pollution scenarios, respectively. Both data analysis and simulations have shown that although mangroves can assist in reducing HM pollution, the quality and health of this ecosystem will be severely affected if the environment is excessively polluted. In addition, a data-and-model driven management tool is devised for the sustainable management of the mangrove environmental resources.